Ann Kornblut, the Washington Post’s ‘08 democratic campaign beat writer, is fresh off the circuit in Iowa and took questions online today. I thought there were some great questions and I was fascinated by much of what Anne had to say. Some nuggets:
Anne E. Kornblut: A lot of political professionals are wondering the same thing about McCain. It’s hard to imagine the former frontrunner — the only ever real political challenge to Pres. Bush on the Republican side — quitting the race before it’s in voters’ hands. But he has to deal with the cash issue, as well as his rate of spending, and hope for some shift in Iraq. At least for now, for him, the immigration debate is over.
I think we took for granted the relationship between McCain’s support for the immigration bill and his descent. Though the latter had momentum for a while, I think there’s still a lesson here that reminds us why nothing gets done in Congress during election years.
Anne E. Kornblut: Thanks for the question! A lot of the Iowans I encountered were — not necessarily surprisingly, but refreshingly — really open-minded about the race, and said they would like to see more of the candidates. Their view is that they have a nice, long, 6-month stretch to learn all they can about these folks before making a decision.
She repeated this over and over - let’s not forget how meaningless poll numbers may be given the shifted cycle this year.
Atlanta: Anne, have you ever asked the Obama camp about their performance among blue-collar whites? Is it a concern of theirs?
Anne E. Kornblut: This is a really interesting subject. The Clinton folks are already talking about Obama’s supporters as “latte Democrats” — i.e. upscale Democrats — as opposed to their own working-class backers. Obama’s advisers have said that they are still in the process of introducing themselves to less educated, less involved voters, and that as soon as they’re able to get those voters to know Obama his standing in that demographic will improve. My view, the jury is still out on this question. Side note here: Edwards has been proclaiming himself as the one candidate who can win among white blue-collar men, especially, in Southern states, implying that Obama, and Clinton, will have trouble in that group.
Now this is something to keep an eye on. Also, consider what this could mean for the real deal when they face a Republican: white, southern male voters may be the deciding demographic for the Democratic primaries.
Arlington, Va.: I have a question about Fred Thompson. Isn’t it ironic that he would be trying to boost up his foreign policy experience by flying off to London, giving a speech and meeting with Margaret Thatcher? Isn’t foriegn policy experience more of a “hands-on” issue, like being on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee or helping to create policy in the White House like Albright, Powell or Rice? Or do you think the American citizens are so “starstruck” by Fred that they will give him a wide pass on a very serious issue?
Anne E. Kornblut: What I like about this is that Thatcher is an active figure in the 2008 presidential race: More than once I have heard Clinton officials draw comparisons between their candidate and Maggie, to illustrate that a woman candidate must exhibit strength.
I just like this phenomenon as well - have seen Thatcher come up in discussions about candidates who don’t do well in ‘favorability’ polls still winning as well. Oh, and I also have a not-so-secret crush on Maggie Thatcher.
Anne E. Kornblut: The candidates, of course, avoid talking about running mates this early — they all see themselves as the ones at the top of the ticket. But there is a fair amount of speculation that Clinton could pick someone like former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (who was, as you recall, running for president earlier but dropped out and is now backing Clinton). Other names in the mix, for a Clinton nominee or anyone else: Mark Warner of Virginia; Evan Bayh of Indiana…
And this touches on another major theme of Anne’s discussion: Hillary Clinton apparently has the utmost confidence she will win. This emerged in Anne’s observations again and again. As do some other fine points on the continuing importance of NewIowashire, the continuing significance of John Edwards in Iowa, and the continuing annoyance of reporters covering Edwards hair. A good read.
Posted by Andrew Bennett
Posted by Andrew Bennett
Posted by Andrew Bennett
