Predicting the Unpredictable

December 28, 2007

Some tragic recent events and amongst the chaos, the predictable:

Giuliani sought to link the incident to his campaign themes of security for a dangerous world and that Islamic radicals have declared war on the rest of the world.

In a statement, he said Bhutto’s slaying “is a reminder that terrorism anywhere — whether in New York, London, Tel Aviv or Rawalpindi — is an enemy of freedom. We must redouble our efforts to win the terrorists’ war on us.”

That’s right, time for a few candidates to reload, to reiterate, and to regress.

Another predictable trend: the media’s and the candidates’ new-found value on foreign policy has only dumbed-down the issues and policy debates.


Don’t Forget the Pop in Populism

December 27, 2007

There is bigger and sadder global news at this, but the holiday schedule delays a blog post un-related to today’s  assassination of Benazir Bhutto:

Plenty of magazine reading on holiday transit - it’s a shame that the one week you have all the time to read, the weeklies just cram a year’s worth of human interest stories or type that can’t be aged. Anyway, a piece by Matt Cooper in Cond Nast on John Edwards the phony populist, get a lot better in the context of Clive Crook’s op-ed in the FT today:

A recent poll by the Wall Street Journal and NBC found that 58 per cent of Americans think that globalisation has been bad for the US and that only 28 per cent believe that it has been good…

…the rising tide of economic populism makes the prospects for meaningful trade liberalisation and an intelligent resolution of the immigration conundrum even more bleak. Beyond next year, the real question is what happens in 2009, when (let us suppose) the main obstacles to a populist turn in policy have been removed. How far left, in economic policy, might America then veer?

Compare this to Cooper’s soothing tones for the American globalist:

Edwards is the most populist of the major presidential candidates, and there’s an understandable tendency on the part of business executives to recoil from him…

But should business really fear a President Edwards? I don’t think so. His public record and private comments suggest someone who’s less than a ferocious populist and more like the moderate Southern Democrat he was known as before this presidential bid…

When it comes to trade, Edwards is only marginally more protectionist than Clinton or Obama.

Crook’s data and interpretation add to some polling I’ve posted on this blog that shows that American’s are increasingly favoring a protectionist policy when it comes to immigration, trade, and military entanglement. Meanwhile, as Cooper and other reveal, even the most populist of the candidates is not really a populist. Maybe the voters are really smart and know Edwards is phony populist - so why the popularity for Clinton/Obama or even Giuliani/Romney on the other side? Where’s the true populist who can run with the growing protectionist sentiment in the electorate?

huckabee.jpg

Uh oh.

I think both Crook and Cooper are focused solely on one of the more tangible components of populism: the restraints it offers voters who fear the market is going too far. But populism is also about zeitgeists, illusions, and…well…varments:

In fact, Huckabee said, not only had he hunted varmints himself — in addition to deer, ducks, antelopes and, now, pheasants — but he also was an experienced varmint-eater, having downed his share of fried squirrel, biscuits and Coke as a college student.

“I figured out you could put grease in a popcorn popper and heat that thing up, and you could cook anything,” he said in an interview. “So we fried squirrel.”

And with that the contest for the world’s most powerful job centered not on policy and substance in the run-up to next week’s Iowa caucuses, but on the question of authenticity.


Ron Paul Day

December 24, 2007

As an ongoing part of my completely anecdotal media polling, yesterday was Ron Paul Day. Saw him on Meet the Press, CSpan, and Glenn Beck - I think two were previously aired, but hey, I don’t watch much tv, and seeing Glenn Beck actually succeed in a ‘gotcha’ on Ron Paul when he asks the candidate how he plans to pay for anything without taxes was high-comedy.

Like most, I knew two things about Mr. Paul for sure before yesterday: his positions are extreme and his fundraising is speedy. Half-way through yesterday’s media blitz, my view on him hadn’t changed but I was definitely more miffed about where in the hell all his money is coming from. I mean, it’s pretty amazing that so many people with money don’t think our history of liberal internationalism, federal economic institutions, or  timely government-backed market corrections have had anything to do with the economic stability that has allowed those same people to accumulate enough money that they can give some of it away to Ron Paul.

But thanks to Ron Paul Day, I have a little better understanding of how this man is pulling it off:

1. Just enough Ross Perot in him - there are clearly plenty of people in Texas with money to support these guys.

2. Endorsements from people who simply want the hype to continue, who don’t really care but aren’t gonna take it anymore, and who actually don’t want him to win but are trying to make a statement.

3. Support from radicals whose positions are just as ridiculous and contradictory as Paul’s.

That’s not to say I’m entirely dismissing the Infowars folks here - it is definitely a problem that so many are so fed-up and disconnected that they’re willing to cut off their nose to spite their face. The rest of the candidates should be trying to communicate with these folks, while Ron Paul will happily do the cutting.


Hillary, Obama, and Foreign Affairs “Experience”

December 22, 2007

Hammering home the point that her foreign policy experience trumps the other candidates, today Hillary presented an array of foreign policy stars hailing from Bill Clinton’s administration who testifed on her toughness and experience. Clinton remarked that an experienced hand at foreign policy was needed in these times if the mistakes of George W Bush were not to be repeated. Obama retorted at another campaign event that more of Bill Clinton’s former advisers were supporting him as opposed to Hillary. His response predictably drew fire from the Hillary campaign who listed the scores of Clinton appointees who were backing Hillary.

Whether Obama really has more Clinton administration appointees than Hillary or not, there is no doubt that a vast number of ex-Clintonistas are in the Obama camp. What, if any, is the significance of this? You would be hardpressed to find experienced Democratic hands at foreign policy who had not been affiliated with the Clinton administration–after all, this was an eight year presidential reign for the Democrats after countless years in the desert. So that may reduce the impact of the notion that “these guys support Obama over Clinton”–for many of them, it may well just be another foreign policy opportunity that was not available elsewhere.

 What is significant, however, is that the relative continuity of Democratic foreign policy expertise in Obama’s campaign may mean that his foreign policy would not be all that different from Clinton. Key differences will persist of course–most notably on Iran, Iraq, and the Middle East generally–but these may be outnumbered by the similarities. So depending on how Iowa and New Hampshire primary voters weigh the importance of this difference, they could go either way.

 On the question of whether Obama’s foreign policy experience is as insubstantial as Hillary’s campaign claims, a compelling argument being made more and more by the Obama campaign is that Bill Clinton himself did not have all that great a knowledge of foreign policy. A former associate attorney general in the Clinton administration notes that Clinton in 1992 had not dealt with foreign affairs in any way more substantive than Obama, and that Arkansas at the time was an overwhelmingly rural economy the size of Chicago. In itself, this relative lack of experience did not mean that Clinton would be a bad president–and in fact, he turned out to be a pretty good one.


Edwards’ Turn

December 19, 2007

At this point in the campaign circuit you get the sense that the press, in all its fair and balanced goodness, is going out of its way to give each candidate their day in the spotlight before January 3. With that spirit of skepticism in mind, I

hereby

dub

today

John Edwards

day.


Predictable?

December 18, 2007

Not so much. Check this out:

electability-poll.png

And more growing uncertainty from the latest USA Today Poll:

Among Republicans, five candidates are in competitive positions — four of them effectively tied for second place. Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to lead, supported by 27% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee was second among Republicans, at 16%. Tied at 14% were Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

I’ll stick by my prediction that the Huckabee bashing will continue, but beyond that, crystal balls are getting murkier and murkier on both sides of the ticket.


Lull Before the Who Knows What

December 17, 2007

Not a whole lot of inspiration from the Sunday papers today. You get the sense that the candidates tried to plant a few seeds last week (Huckabee w/ the Mormon-baiting; Hillary camp w/ the drug comments; Bill w/ the “lack of experience” comments) and everyone’s just waiting around to see what sprouts. Will be interested to see if Obama joins in - kind of get the feeling that he’s better off just dancing in the ring instead of throwing punches. Speaking of which - it’s difficult to imagine Mike Huckabee getting through this week without taking a few shots.

The other interesting storyline will continue to be endorsements. McCain and Hillary got the DesMoines Register and word is McCain will get Joe Lieberman as well. This isn’t a huge boost for the Arizona Senator so much as it should serve as a reminder to the media, and perhaps the voters of New Hampshire, that he’s still alive. And something tells me, sadly, that you can’t count out Fred Thompson either. No link, just a gut thing. By this time next week I would hope there’s more than that to go on.


Brotherly Love

December 12, 2007

Mike Huckabee wonders aloud if Mormons believe that the devil and Jesus are brothers, but the saddest part of the coming saga over these comments will be Romney’s initial response: “That’s been something that’s been leveled at our church over many many years and of course that’s been set straight now.” Are you kidding me?

Advice to Mitt - try this tact:

It’s sad that Mike Huckabee, an apparently experienced Minister, would give creedence to such religious myths. Thinking the devil and Jesus are brothers is ridiculous, almost laughable - Mormons have never believed this, I hope Mike Huckabee does not believe this, and please, someone send a message to the good Minister that I don’t believe this.

Team Mitt can not afford to drop the ball on this - this should only hurt Huckabee if it’s played correctly.


She Can Win The White House, but She’s Not Electable

December 12, 2007

Today’s Chris Cilliza Fix at Washingtonpost.com is fascinating. It focuses on the contradiction that is voter’s perceptions of Hillary Clinton. On one hand, 63% of Democrats think she has the best chance of “taking back the White House,” while on the other hand her penchant for negative ratings and lack of electibility in the mind of many a Dem is well documented. Predictably, Barack Obama is playing up these latter negatives while Hillary most recently highlights the 63% with a clever conference call:

n a hastily-organized conference call this afternoon, which just happened to be scheduled at the same time that Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D-N.H.) was formally endorsing Obama, a group of Clinton surrogates praised Clinton as the lone candidate in the field who can win the White House back for Democrats. And, while they initially avoided any direct shots at Obama, by the end of the call those came too.

“I don’t understand a candidate who seems to think he can offer one position in the early stages of his career and then when he reaches a position of national election he can change a position,” said Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (Texas).

Asked later to expand on that sentiment, Jackson Lee cited Obama’s stance on gun control. “If you are a Senator or state senator who talked about banning all guns…and then all of a sudden you are altering that position or seemingly altering that position….that is inconsistent,” she said.

The other Clinton surrogates were far more circumspect about naming names when it came to electability. Sen. Evan Bayh (Ind.) dodged a question on whether or not Obama was qualified to be commander in chief and Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones said that her support of Clinton had little to do with Obama.

So, which is it? Next President or un-electable. Check out the first comment on the post:

Hillary Clinton is the least electable candidate. No person with any love for this country, with any degree of self respect, with any concern for morality or right and wrong, will even consider voting for her. Not just that, there is spreading movement called “The Pledge” amoungst past Democratic voters. I’ve taken it. If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, I swear not to vote for one Democratic candidate. Not one. The whole party can go to straight to h*ll. Every other Democrat running is a better choice, with better ideas, and more concern for us and for this country.


Sinful

December 11, 2007

Instant-classic Stanley Fish column - from his New York Times Blog - includes the Tags: John Milton, Katie Couric, Machiavelli…

Fish is focusing on Katie Couric’s “beyond politics” questions for the candidates as, to be modest, a sign of the downfall of humanity. While Fish’s argument is founded on a great point (and even better philosophical roots):

Why, when the office the candidates seek is a pre-eminently political one, does it make sense to go “beyond politics”? (It is as if you were looking for an office manager and decided to go “beyond organizational skills” by inquiring into the applicants’ tastes in books or music.)

But one has to wonder if it may not hurt to ask Mike Huckabee a question beyond politics, like “Mike, when was the last time you lied or stole?”

Probably wouldn’t get very far with the Huckster, but my point is “beyond politics” does not mean beyond the political and a well crafted question from Couric may enable the media to pressure candidates beyond stock political positions and force them to stumble when they have to answer questions like “do you know anyone who is gay?”

Fish is still brilliant though, read on:

CBS News may be right to rely on an “informal poll” indicating that “come November, policy issues may not rule the day.” The voters may well prefer the candidate who breathes virtue and rectitude to the candidate who demonstrates the kind of knowledge often associated with “policy wonks.”

If that in fact happens, the American electorate will have allied itself with one position in a long-running philosophical quarrel between those who think that the best persons make the best leaders and those who think that the best leader is the one most likely (by virtue of experience and skills) to get the job done.

Do you start with the inner landscape of the individual and project outward to his or her performance in office, or do you leave the inner weather of the candidates’ spiritual and psychological health to their therapists and pastors?

Each of the alternatives has had its powerful champions. In “The Tenure of Kings and Magistrates,” John Milton tells us that when men first felt the need to institute government in order to ensure civil order, they chose one “above the rest” because of “the eminence of his wisdom and integrity.” If only Adam had not fallen, Milton adds, there would have been no necessity to choose anyone, for in the beginning “all men were naturally born free, being the image and resemblance of God himself” and were therefore born “to command not to obey.”

That’s just the trouble, declared his contemporary (and philosophical opposite) Thomas Hobbes. Hobbes agrees that in the abstract all men are equal and equally free, but that means that, left to their own devices, they will prey on one another and produce a general instability that will lead to most lives being “nasty, brutish and short.” Hobbes doesn’t believe in the natural goodness invoked by Milton (“the eminence of his wisdom and integrity”), and so he opts for the artificial solution of granting to one man (called the sovereign) all the rights and powers in the state provided that he secure the property of every man against the depredations of his neighbors and protect the country from its foreign enemies.

The sovereign’s ability to make good on these obligations will have nothing to do with his moral character — “the question of who is the better man,” Hobbes says, “has no place in the condition of mere nature” — and everything to do with his political skills. Hobbes insists that the “worthiness” to lead is different from “the worth or value of a man and also from his merit.” What is important is “a particular power or ability for that wherof he is said to be worthy; which particular ability is usually named fitness or aptitude.” Is he good at the job? — does he have the aptitude? — is a more pertinent question than is he good?

Hobbes was anticipated by Machiavelli, who noted that everyone always proclaims “how praiseworthy it is in a prince to keep faith and to live with integrity and not with craft.”

But, says Machiavelli, everyone is wrong…