Front-Runners

July 30, 2007

A major take-away from last week was that Hillary Clinton is still the clear front-runner among the Dems and that if that nomination were based purely on debate-performances alone, she would have it.

The Republican picture isn’t so clear, but I think today’s Boston Globe cover is good evidence of who will be rising to the top in the near future:

Romney has steadily pushed to the head of the Republican pack in New Hampshire, while his major rivals have lost ground. A mid-July poll had him opening up a 15-point lead.

Romney has benefitted from larger forces shaping the race, notably, McCain’s difficulties. But he has also run a campaign that might have been lifted straight out of “The Official Guide to Winning the New Hampshire Primary,” if there were such a guide to the conventional wisdom. The formula: win over influential activists, advertise early, and lavish New Hampshire with attention.

“It’s really no secret what Romney’s been doing,” said Fergus Cullen, chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, who is neutral in the race. “They have run the most traditional campaign in New Hampshire, characterized by the most visits here and the best grass-roots organization and by running a campaign aimed directly at likely Republican primary voters.”

I always wonder why other candidates don’t pick up on these “no secret” campaign strategies. Here’s a hint from politico.com:

After months of tough press and a corresponding drop in his once-soaring poll numbers, Rudy Giuliani’s campaign has put a new strategy in place, nurturing relationships with reporters and trying to drive coverage with its own messaging.

Mastering some of the basic fundamentals of the modern presidential campaign simply hasn’t come easily for Giuliani, who started his quest much later than his GOP peers and has sometimes seemed to have difficulty adjusting to the umatched scrutiny of a run for the White House.

The article goes on to become a ‘Giuliani is righting the ship’ piece, but I don’t buy it. I simply can’t picture Giuliani running a campaign of the quality Romney’s capable of. Granted, Labor Day will welcome a full-fledged Fred Thompson and that could shake everybody up. Until then, Romney looks great. Of course he doesn’t poll great against any of the Democrats, and the Sunday Globe couldn’t leave him with just the cover story:

Jokes about Massachusetts may receive some half-hearted laughter on the national campaign trail, but few working men and women in Massachusetts should see anything funny about the state’s lackluster economic performance during the Romney years.


We Are All Cowboys

July 27, 2007

This is good. Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama need to win a trip to China with Nick Kristof:

Clinton and Obama have signed on as co-sponsors of a bill - the latest resurrection of anti-China legislation - that could target China for punitive duties unless it revalues its currency. The China-U.S. relationship is the most important relationship in the world, and this bill would risk trade battles that would disrupt it for many years to come.

It’s precisely the kind of cowboy diplomacy that would infuriate the commentariat if it were coming from President Bush. Yet the president, while reckless in most areas of foreign policy, has been steadfast on trade and his handling of China…

…Trade is a particularly useful prism through which to look at politicians, for it offers a litmus test of political courage and economic leadership. That’s because there are no political benefits to a candidate who supports free trade, but considerable benefits to the country…

…Look, there are plenty of valid reasons for Clinton and Obama to stand up to China. One place to start would be China’s disgraceful policy of supplying Sudan with the weapons used to slaughter people in Darfur.

There’ll be a tendency among liberals to excuse Clinton and Obama for pandering on trade, because they are sensible on so many other issues.

But when we see candidates as smart and sophisticated as Clinton and Obama, we should demand more from them than Ross Perot-style populism. And it would be a disaster if eight years of reckless gunboat diplomacy in the political-military realm were followed by reckless cowboy diplomacy in economics and trade.

This all absolutely needs to be said. I’m usually not for such aggrandizement of our politicians and associating any of their actions (especially their potential actions) with courage, but Kristof does right to essentially call them out on the lack of leadership when it comes to trade and China. And for Obama, it gets worse when you consider his support of farm subsidies. But Kristof does do a bit too much lumping of all Democrats in this camp - hopefully will start seeing some statements from candidates of both stripes re: their trade policies now.

On a related note, I saw a t-shirt the other day that read: ‘We Are All Cowboys.’ I’m going to hope it’s not referring to the American football team and say I like it.


First-of-its-kind Debate Follow-up

July 25, 2007

Buzz Machine expresses my sarcasm regarding the YouTube Debates in much more direct terms.

Then again, for those of us who believe in the promise of these here Internets, the fact that the debates are being judged a success is a small step for the Tubes - Andrew Sullivan has full, if not overflowing, coverage.

Meanwhile, Mathew Yglesias reminds us why journalists aren’t the best people to ask the questions: the Atlantic’s editor admits he’s whining with his list of questions he wants the candidates to answer, but let’s face it, it’s high-level policy if not philosophy he’s looking for. It’s also the perfect opportunity for a candidate to avoid giving a real answer. If those are the answers you want, you need to look to the pages of books, papers, policy statements, and articles in Foreign Affairs that the candidates will be publishing.

Clinton and Obama are clashing! That’s right, they’re spitting venom. That or they have a difference of opinion and Hillary is rightfully framing it as a lack of experience on Obama’s part. Oh, and the media is probably desperate for some cat-fighting among the top-tier candidates as well…

The Fix has something on Clinton/Obama that’s actually worth your time.

Thank you Ruth Marcus:

Might I suggest that sometimes a V-neck top is only a V-neck top? As a person of cleavage, I’d guess that Clinton’s low-cut shirt simply reflected a few centimeters of sartorial miscalculation, not a deliberate fashion statement.

Breasts may be an advantage in certain settings; the Senate floor isn’t one of them. If you’re giving a speech on higher education, as Clinton was, you don’t want Ted Stevens thinking about — and you certainly don’t want to think about Ted Stevens thinking about — your cleavage.

Finally, a link that has nothing to do with the fact that this blog linked to us or that I may have links to the author - seriously, this is the best breakdown of a single answer from Monday’s debate that you’ll find on the Tubes.


WhoseTube? Debates I

July 24, 2007

Some thoughts on this ‘historic, unique, and first of its kind debate:’

*CNN did an amazing job playing the middle man who fucks up a perfectly good deal.

*I bet Joe Biden will get some nice play for his performance tonight. He deserves it. I respect that he has a plan. Tonight’s viewers will respect that too, but they’ll get bored by his ‘I have a plan’ speech, which is the extent of his schtick. Meanwhile, I would like to hear him describe how his plan on Iraq is going to play out and how a no-fly zone in Darfur will impact the Sudanese government.

*If I’m a speech writer, campaign manager, or debate junkie, Hillary makes me horny. She seemingly executes every response just as her team drew it up and somehow doesn’t make you want to strangle her for it.

*Obama vs. Edwards: Who will win the fight for the populists? Being that Hillary has at least 35% of the primary votes locked-up, this is a worthwhile fight because it will determine who will still be around late in the primary to have a shot at overtaking Hill. That doesn’t make it any less awkward watching them battle it out.

*Richardson: Had a good night. If Obama/Edwards is the fight for the ‘working man’ and second place among the Dems, then Richardson/Biden is the dual for the policy wonk and third. Biden may have made up some ground in this dual tonight, particularly with Richardson advocating for ‘everybody out of Iraq in 6 months.’ As ridiculous as this is, I was still impressed w/ Biden’s ability to debunk it in the space of this revolutionary forum (insert smiley faces and acronyms that imply laughing out loud at ‘revolutionary forum’).

*Huh, turns out the revolution will be televised…and filled with cynical asides about equal time.

*[Question to Hillary Clinton] “The Arab states believe women are second-class citizens, what makes you think they’ll take you seriously?” Another bonus of the format: gives a sense of what Americans are really thinking. As ridiculous as this question and its premise are, it should be just as valuable to the candidates as the audience. Meanwhile, let’s keep in mind CNN and the geniuses who brought you ‘Crossfire’ and ‘The Situation Room’ are choosing these questions.

*Mike Gravel: Would be much more productive to have him making the YouTube videos.

*Biden wins for best outro answers, meaning they fit perfectly into one of CNN’s outros in the post-debate analysis. I’m thinking specifically of his answer to the ‘in God we trust’ question (”the coin has it right”) and the gun question (”if that’s his baby he needs help” - something like that).

*Democrats need to shut the fuck up about the Iraqi parliament going on vacation. My personal opinion is that the charges of Iraqi politicians not being incentivized are baseless, and beyond that, I think pot-shots at those in charge in Iraq are a bad move politically.

*I’m wondering how Hillary Clinton can NOT take a private jet to California.

*Um, was John Edwards serious w/ that coat comment. By the end of this revolutionary debate I lost track of what was ironic.

*If anyone can use footage from this debate in mash-ups or for other purposes, then Mike Gravel needs to use Anderson Cooper in his next campaign ad and convince his base that it is CNN he’s running against.

*Final analysis: Joe Biden may not be in the eight, but he did earn his category tonight; Bill Richardson didn’t lose any of the ground he gained in the last few weeks, which is a real accomplishment for him; the other candidates should now be convinced that Hillary Clinton is not going to fuck this up, they will actually have to defeat her; hopefully this whole YouTube thing has CNN thinking they could save money and just outsource the Cafferty File.

*You asked, they answered - how could this have ever happened without CNN…I mean YouTube.


Obama too Brainy?

July 22, 2007

Apparently Boston’s alt-weekly the Phoenix finds Barack a bit too tweedy for its tastes. This, of course, in a city with the highest number of students per capita in the nation.

Hadn’t really thought about it before - but I’m not sure I agree. For one thing, when I’ve seen him speak he comes across as inspirational and thoughtful, but not professorial.

Sadly I agree that coming across as an intellectual is only a handicap in the race for the presidency - contrast the brilliant (but able to hide it) Clinton with the probably-not-quite-so-brilliant (but practically draped in ivy) John Kerry. We can leave the rant about the idiotic streak of anti-smart people that runs through mass US culture for another day.


Richardsonian Romance?

July 19, 2007

Delighted to hear that Edwards is falling. I’ve never understood the infatuation with him. He was to be an inspiring speaker in the Clintonian mode, but now we’ve got Obama, who’s inspiring in the JFK/RFK mode.

Edwards did bupkis for Kerry as far as anyone can see, and also performed badly in those debates. Plus I’ve always been afraid of his populist anti-trade rhetoric. And I don’t think he’s cute.

Now perhaps elite media conversation will break away from the iron triangle of Obama-Clinton-Edwards talk. Though Richardson hasn’t sparkled so far himself, he’s still got a lot of resume cred. Let’s see how he does with this press opportunity.

Postscript:
Looking at some other polls it may be a choice the campaign is making to focus on Iowa rather than New Hampshire- back in Grand Old Iowa he is leading or in second in the polls, with Obama (much less Richardson) nowhere to be seen.


Falling Fast

July 18, 2007

John Edwards falls behind Bill Richardson in the polls. Despite being the candidate of the day in the blogosphere, I would posit that this flip is not due to any surge on Richardson’s part. John Edwards has been awful in the debates, he’s a complete turn-off. Also, he’s a mess when it comes to war policy, which is all anyone cares about right now. If our focus returns to domestic issues and Edwards can get some alone time through an emotional speech or two (though I suspect there’s some Edwards-Katrina fatigue going on among voters so he might want to avoid New Orleans for this) he might stand a chance. Absent of that, he’s falling fast.


Summer of Terror

July 18, 2007

Different question:

If a resurgent Al Qaeda is able to pull off another big ol’ attack this year, what happens?

Do people go back to the “Daddy Party” in fear and elect a Iron Man like Giuliani or “We need to double Gitmo” Romney? (Though I’m not familiar with an Action Hero named Mitt.) Or do they see that the “We haven’t been attacked again, so Bush is good and Iraq is working” is a sham, and flee that ultimate proof of failure for the guys who haven’t been screwing things up?

Hate to be morbid, but we may as well start debating the politics of an attack before it happens rather than afterwards. Then it still matters, but would be tacky to talk about.


The Bloomberg is Off the Rose

July 18, 2007

Bloomberg’s a candidate in search of a constituency. Stories like the below make him all the more improbable. In the hyper-partisan environment that has further stiffened since the election of President I’m-A-Uniter-Not-A-Divider Bush, Democrats are too angry to fall for the line of a lack of difference between the Reps and Dems - and being in the wilderness for the last 8 years has made them hungry for victory.

While money is obviously not a problem for Mr. Bloomberg (he could blow a billion on the race out of his own pocket and not even notice) he doesn’t have an organization, name recognition, or a base of supporters beyond the Hudson River.

I don’t see the room for a Perot or even shudder Nader* this time round. While Bloomberg’s doubtless got the ego to imagine he can be president, that doesn’t mean he can do much of anything.

As ODB suggests, people always wring their hands about the sad lack of political comity and are plain fed up with the two parties today. Whatever year that “today” might have been. It’s the same way that their neighbors used to be so much nicer, SNL was always better 10 years ago, and kids these days aren’t as smart as they used to be.

Footnote: Did you see that Nader is considering another run? (or, more aptly, here.) What an embarrassment.


Michael Bloomberg, Apolitical Savant?

July 17, 2007

Under the right circumstances, I can imagine Michael Bloomberg making it official in ‘08 and actually doing quite well compared to recent Independent bids. Then I read the following in regards to his failed bid to get the New York legislature to approve the Manhattan Congestion Tax:

In a tense meeting on Monday, testy exchanges erupted between the mayor and the Democratic state senators he was trying to win over. At one point, according to several people present, Mr. Bloomberg told the senators that his administration had sent plenty of information about his plan in the mail, and that it was not his fault if they had not read it.

“If the mayor came in with one vote, he left with none,” said Senator Kevin S. Parker, a Brooklyn Democrat.

“His posture was not ingratiating,” he said. “He says he doesn’t know politics, and he certainly bore that out by the way he behaved.”

So angered were Democrats that they decided to vote as a bloc to defeat the measure, and there were not nearly enough votes among the Republican senators for it to pass.

The mayor moved from meeting to meeting in the Capitol, his expression grim, and he declined to take questions from reporters. He did take a shot at his critics on WROW-AM radio in Albany on Monday morning, saying, “Anybody that says we didn’t have enough time to look at this is ridiculous.

“They don’t read the mail or they don’t read the newspapers,” he said, adding that it would be difficult “to not know about congestion pricing if you can read.”

Not exactly the great negotiator huh? Or maybe it’s just a tactic and he’s playing hard-ball. And then there’s this:

Senate Democrats were particularly upset when the mayor, who recently left the Republican Party, told them he was “not political.” Several tartly asked him why he had then supported their Republican opponents. The New York Times reported this month that Mr. Bloomberg would continue to back Republican legislative candidates.

“I think several members during the meeting with the mayor referenced their disappointment that he left the Republican Party but still swore his allegiance, basically, to keeping Joe Bruno as the majority leader,” said Senator Liz Krueger, a Manhattan Democrat. “The mayor tried to explain that he wasn’t political. But most of us in politics don’t believe that any mayor is not political.”

So, Mayor Bloomberg: Bankrupt of political savvy or apolitical savant? Either way, could he toe this line on the national stage? My insticts lol this, but I also wonder if the electorate has actually had it with Washington party politics. For now I’ll return to my instincts because we hear that America has had it with Washington party politics at least every four years.